Introduction: A Strategic Move by India

In a landmark development, India has opened multiple gates of the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, citing heavy rainfall and rising water levels. This action closely follows India’s decisive suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a 1960 pact that regulated water sharing between India and Pakistan. With the treaty now in abeyance, India holds unprecedented leverage over the Chenab, a river critical to Pakistan’s agricultural lifeline.

This bold move—widely seen as a part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic doctrine—has sparked alarm across Pakistan, raising concerns over water security and regional equilibrium.

Why the Baglihar Dam Matters

Situated in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district, the 900-MW Baglihar Dam is a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project on the Chenab River—one of the three Western Rivers allotted to Pakistan under the IWT.

For years, Pakistan has challenged the dam’s design, fearing it could enable India to manipulate water flows. Now, with the treaty suspended, India’s operational control of the dam has far-reaching geopolitical and hydrological implications.

Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: A Geopolitical Game-Changer

On April 23, 2025, India formally suspended the IWT, citing national security concerns following the Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed 26 lives. The historic treaty, brokered by the World Bank, had allocated the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers to Pakistan, while India retained rights over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

With the treaty on hold, India is now free to undertake:

• Hydroelectric construction projects
• Reservoir refilling operations
• Sediment flushing without informing Pakistan

This marks a significant escalation, directly impacting Pakistan’s agricultural and water management capabilities.

Chenab River Flow and Baglihar Dam Operations

In early May, heavy rains in Jammu and Kashmir led to severe silt accumulation in both the Baglihar and Salal dams. To prevent reservoir choking, NHPC conducted a controlled sediment flush between May 2 and May 4, releasing massive volumes of water downstream. As a result, Pakistan’s Chenab water intake plummeted by 61%, from 29,675 cusecs on April 23 to 11,423 cusecs by May 5.

Following further rainfall, India reopened the Baglihar gates on May 8, stabilizing upstream water levels while exercising real-time control over river dynamics. Locals in Akhnoor reported drastic water level fluctuations—underscoring India’s authority over the river post-treaty suspension.

Pakistan’s Alarmed Response

Pakistan has responded with visible unease. Officials warn that reduced Chenab flow could devastate key agricultural belts in Punjab, especially during the crucial Kharif season.

• Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) recorded up to a 90% flow reduction
• Farmers in Sindh expressed fear of their lands drying out
• Former minister Bilawal Bhutto reiterated that any tampering with Indus waters could be deemed an “act of war”

The lack of water-sharing coordination, data exchange, and IWT meetings has left Pakistan vulnerable to unpredictable river behavior.

Modi’s Masterstroke: Strategic and Diplomatic Implications

This calculated move is being hailed by Indian diplomats and strategists. Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Satish Chandra, termed it a “Brahmastra”—an ultimate weapon—against Pakistan’s reliance on river water.

Besides asserting hydrological control, India has:

• Downgraded diplomatic ties
• Banned Pakistani shipping from Indian ports
• Halted all imports from Pakistan

The treaty suspension also allows India to fast-track strategic projects like Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle, which are expected to dramatically increase India’s water regulation capability by 2027–28.

Challenges and Infrastructure Limitations

While the strategic intent is clear, India’s storage capacity remains limited:

• Baglihar Dam: 0.287 MAF
• Salal Dam: 0.024 MAF

Experts suggest that fully halting water flow would require 22 Bhakra-sized dams, a monumental task given the Himalayan region’s seismic and ecological fragility.

In the interim, India can disrupt Pakistan’s farming by:

• Withholding water during Rabi or Kharif sowing
• Releasing silt-heavy water without prior warning

However, such actions carry the risk of flooding Indian villages upstream, requiring careful operational calibration.

Regional and Environmental Fallout

This shift in water policy has serious ecological and diplomatic consequences:

• Climate change already threatens a 20% decline in Indus flows by 2050
• 15.2 crore Pakistanis depend on agriculture irrigated by these rivers
• India must also consider China, which controls Indus headwaters in Tibet—a potential wildcard in the water conflict

Any escalation in hydro-politics could expand beyond India and Pakistan, inviting China’s strategic involvement and further regional volatility.

Conclusion: A Watershed Moment in India-Pakistan Relations

India’s opening of the Baglihar Dam gates and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty signal a tectonic shift in regional diplomacy. By asserting water sovereignty over the Chenab, India has sent a clear message: terrorism will not go unanswered.

While infrastructure limitations prevent a total cutoff, India’s leverage over river flow is now a powerful geopolitical tool. As the world watches, this marks the beginning of a new hydro-strategic era in South Asia—one where water is not just a resource, but a weapon of statecraft.

FAQs

What is the Baglihar Dam and why is it important?
The Baglihar Dam is a 900-MW hydroelectric project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir. It plays a critical role in India’s strategic control of water flow to Pakistan.

Why did India suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?
India cited national security concerns and Pakistan’s support for terrorism, particularly after the deadly Pahalgam attack.

How does the suspension of the IWT affect Pakistan?
Pakistan’s agriculture relies heavily on Chenab and other Western Rivers. India’s ability to regulate flow can severely impact its water availability during key crop seasons.

Can India legally control the flow of the Chenab River?
With the suspension of the treaty, India has chosen to act unilaterally. While this raises international concerns, it reflects India’s strategic assertion of sovereignty.

What are the environmental risks?
Unregulated water flow and dam operations can cause flooding, soil erosion, and downstream ecological disruption. Climate change further exacerbates these challenges.